Crude Poised for Significant Leg Higher, Energy Aspects Says

Even partial slowdowns or insurance cost increases add to market nervousness

Energy Aspects founder Amrita Sen discussed China's oil demand and crude price outlook amid ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking on September 7, 2026, she highlighted that while diesel and gasoline prices remain elevated, crude oil is positioned for a notable upward move. Her comments came as market participants closely monitor supply risks and Asian consumption trends. China's refining activity and industrial recovery have been key drivers supporting diesel and gasoline strength, according to Sen. However, she noted that crude fundamentals are tightening due to geopolitical tensions affecting Gulf exports. The combination of resilient Asian demand and constrained supply flows is creating upward pressure on benchmark crude prices beyond what product markets alone would suggest. How Are Geopolitical Risks Shaping Oil Markets? Sen explained that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, though not fully blocking flows, are creating uncertainty that traders are pricing into crude contracts.

Even partial slowdowns or insurance cost increases add to market nervousness. She emphasized that these risks are not temporary but structural, requiring sustained vigilance from energy investors and policymakers alike. What Role Does China Play in the Current Outlook? China's crude imports have remained robust despite economic headwinds, supported by strategic reserves and refining margins. Sen pointed out that teapot refineries and independent processors continue to lift volumes, keeping overall demand firm. This steady uptake from the world's largest oil importer is helping absorb potential supply shocks and underpinning price resilience. Frequently Asked Questions Is crude expected to outperform diesel and gasoline in the near term? Yes, Sen indicated that while products have led the rally, crude is now catching up due to tighter supply dynamics and sustained Chinese demand. How significant is the Strait of Hormuz to global oil flows?

The strait remains a critical chokepoint, with about a fifth of global oil consumption passing through it, making any disruption a major market concern. Will China's demand continue to support prices if global growth slows? Sen believes China's demand has shown resilience and is less sensitive to short-term fluctuations, providing a floor for crude prices even in weaker global conditions.