How Have Regional Alliances Shifted Since October 7?
Three years after the October 7 attacks, the Middle East faces a transformed geopolitical landscape marked by shattered alliances and diminished U. S. influence. The conflict that began on that date has triggered a cascade of realignments across the region, altering long-standing power dynamics and prompting new security calculations among state and non-state actors. What was once a relatively stable, if tense, order has given way to fragmentation and uncertainty.
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What Role Are Non-State Actors Playing in the New Order?
The conflict has accelerated a trend toward multipolarity, with countries hedging their bets between competing global powers. Egypt has deepened ties with both Russia and China while maintaining its peace treaty with Israel. Jordan, facing economic strain and internal pressures from its Palestinian-origin population, has walked a diplomatic tightrope, condemning Israeli actions while avoiding rupture with the West. Turkey, under Erdogan, has positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, leveraging its influence in Hamas circles and challenging Israeli legitimacy in international forums—all while preserving NATO membership and economic links with the West.
Hezbollah’s involvement from the north opened a second front, prompting Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon and raising fears of a broader regional war. Though the group has suffered significant losses, it retains residual capacity and continues to draw support from Iran’s axis of resistance. In Yemen, the Houthis have intensified Red Sea attacks, disrupting global trade and prompting U. S.-led naval responses, yet they have also gained political leverage through their solidarity stance with Gaza. These developments underscore how non-state militias now shape strategic outcomes in ways that transcend borders.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the United States lost all influence in the Middle East? No, the U. S. remains a key military and diplomatic player, particularly through its defense partnerships with Israel, Jordan, and Gulf states. However, its ability to shape outcomes has been constrained by regional reluctance to follow Washington’s lead and growing criticism of its unwavering support for Israel amid the Gaza crisis.
Can the Abraham Accords survive the current tensions? The normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states remain intact formally, but public support has eroded significantly. While governments have not withdrawn from the deals, future expansion—such as Saudi normalization—appears stalled pending a credible path toward Palestinian statehood, which many now see as essential for regional stability.
