Canada prepares for unlikely US invasion scenario amid rising tensions

Canadian defence strategy in response to perceived southern threat

Carney acknowledged his administration created contingency plans for a scenario many once deemed implausible: a military invasion from the United States. While he stressed the likelihood remains low, he told The New York Times that evaluating all possibilities is his duty amid the redefinition of bilateral relations under Trump leadership. He described the preparation as straightforward risk management.

The tense context stems from Washington’s global tariff policy and Trump’s repeated desire to make Canada the 51st American state. This dynamic prompted Canadian authorities to simulate defence tactics against a potential US attack. In 2025, Trump stated military force against Canada is „very unlikely,” preferring economic pressure to achieve political goals. Nevertheless, the White House recently told BBC that Trump has done more than anyone to protect the Canadian people.

Military experts consulted by BBC assess an invasion remains improbable, highlighting the deep defence collaboration between the two nations. Still, public concern is evident. A January Leger poll, conducted shortly after Nicolás Maduro’s capture in Venezuela, found over 30 percent of Canadians believe a US invasion is possible.

Major General Christopher Coates, a Royal Canadian Air Force officer with 34 years of service and multiple leadership roles, explained how complex such a confrontation would be. He told BBC he never imagined a military attack could originate from US territory during his career. Coates, who also served in NATO missions, underscored the close defence cooperation between the two countries across many areas.

Both nations are members of NATO, which obliges members to defend an ally under attack

Both nations are members of NATO, which obliges members to defend an ally under attack. They also conduct joint Arctic defence missions through NORAD and regularly exchange intelligence. Due to these ties, Coates estimates a US attack would not begin with a traditional armed assault but could use discreet tools like cyber warfare.

Although the relationship evolved into a natural alliance in the second half of the 20th century—integrating economically, militarily, and culturally after World War II—history has not always been peaceful. Tim Foran, researcher at the Canadian War Museum, notes a core element of Canadian identity has been resistance to American expansion since the 18th and 19th centuries. He explained fear of the United States is fundamental to Canada’s political project.

Canada formed as a union of British North American colonies that remained loyal to the Crown when the colonies that became the US revolted. Before Confederation, the US attempted to invade British colonies, capturing Montreal in 1775 and nearly taking Quebec City. During the War of 1812, Americans repeatedly invaded areas known as Upper Canada, Lower Canada, and maritime colonies, resulting in a stalemate. In that conflict, British troops burned the White House in retaliation.

Foran noted that during that period, the colonies that became Canada depended on Britain and its Royal Navy for defence, alongside Indigenous peoples who served as leaders in major battles. After World War I, Canada reconsidered a possible confrontation with the US, reacting to its neighbour’s growing power and influence. A plan was developed based on secret trips by Canadian generals to border towns, where they posed as tourists and photographed bridges and highways to gather intelligence. They also spoke with locals to better understand the adversary.

Andrew Burtch, researcher at the Canadian War Museum specializing in 20th-century Canadian history, argues that while war seemed unlikely then, Canadians still wanted to be prepared. He said this is one of the roles military forces fulfill.