Democrats Win Midterms, But Still Lack a Winning Message

The Trap of a „Trump Referendum”

Next Tuesday, the Democratic Party is in an excellent position to win the midterms. However, electoral success does not equal a long-term winning strategy. More than a dozen lawmakers, campaign operatives, strategists, and pollsters warned in exclusive interviews that national Democratic leaders risk drawing incorrect conclusions if they regain control of at least one chamber of Congress next week. These party representatives fear that the midterms, which have become a referendum against President Donald Trump, have done little to improve the Democratic brand. They emphasize that a favorable political environment has masked persistent issues with a party still struggling to understand why it lost the 2024 presidential election. They also admit they remain deeply divided on the message to adopt on the road to 2028.

„Do not confuse their loss with our win,”said Morgan Jackson, senior advisor to North Carolina Senatorial candidate Roy Cooper's campaign. Cooper has consistently led in polls by a wide margin in a state Trump won three times. „This is not a validation of the Democratic Party in any way,”said a veteran Democratic pollster working on senatorial campaigns, who requested anonymity to speak freely. „It is much more a rejection of Trump.” Internal Divisions and Brand Weakness The Democratic Party's approval rating dropped sharply after the 2024 presidential election and remains relatively low. This holds true even as voters tell pollsters they trust Democrats more than Republicans on multiple fronts, including cost of living, which voters consistently cite as their top issue in this cycle.

Democratic efforts to find a coherent, positive message to address rising prices and perceptions of corruption in Washington have often been blocked by internal fights between the progressive and moderate wings of the party over the best way to respond to the Trump administration. Democrats argued over whether to extend the government shutdown to protest funding for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency and cuts to health subsidies at the end of 2025 and start of 2026. They were quick to criticize their own party upon the release of the official Democratic National Committee report on 2024 mistakes.

But as Americans became more aware of Trump's agenda and the Iran war increased costs, Democrats focused on a broad costs, chaos, and corruptionmessage that accused the White House — without needing to resolve internal tensions. When your opponent destroys himself,said Matt Barron, a Democratic strategist who worked in rural areas of the Middle West and Rust Belt, just get out of the way and let things take their natural course. Winning Midterms vs. Building a Brand Winning midterms with an historically unpopular president is a different task than building a winning brand for a party defeated at the polls just two years ago. If all you do is say the other side is terrible, you only get so far,said Oliver Libby, a Democratic donor who advised Democratic House candidates Cait Conley from New York and Johnny Garcia from Texas in this cycle.

You can have a minimum viable product for a midterm based on criticism

You can have a minimum viable product for a midterm based on criticism. With only criticism, you don't win a presidential year. In a new POLITICO poll by PF Global, more than half of Americans said if Republicans lose control of both the House and Senate, it would be due to Trump's actions since becoming president, or because Republicans ran weak campaigns. Only one in four said a Democratic-led Congress would result because the party ran a strong campaign.

There are people who will vote in this election who will vote against Republicans,said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist and advisor to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. That does not mean they love Democrats. It just means they are voting against those in power. Democratic strategist Lis Smith, one of the architects of Pete Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, said Democratic candidates performing well in historically red areas are those who distance themselves from the national party. This should say something to party leaders,she stated. Smith helped found the moderate groups Democratic Majority and The Bench, and advises Democratic senatorial candidates like Adam Hamilton from Kansas, James Talarico from Texas, and Josh Turek from Iowa — all of whom have adopted this approach.

In Kansas, Hamilton publicly asked former Vice President Kamala Harris to stay out of his campaign and stated he would vote against keeping Chuck Schumer as Senate party leader. In Texas, Talarico pledged to challenge the party establishmentand change the Democratic Party. And in Iowa, Turek says he rarely thinks about the party, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand stated he wants to end the two-party system entirely.

The reality is that many mediocre and even weak candidates manage to cross the line in a wave election,said Smith. A wave can hide many weaknesses, and we must ensure the party can survive when the wave recedes. Assuming top Democratic operatives see an opportunity for the lo...