Shifting Political Landscape
Florida has moved steadily right over the last quarter-century. In 2000, Democrats held a registration edge. By 2021, Republicans overtook them. Today, Republicans lead by 1.5 million registered voters. This shift defines the current election dynamics.
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Indonesia demands Russia halt recruitment of its citizens for Ukraine warDemocrats nominated a former Republican to break their stalemate. David Jolly won the August 18 primary with 61% of the vote. He joined the Democratic Party in 2025. He selected former Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham.
Gubernatorial Race
The Republican candidate is Rep. Byron Donalds. He won the primary with 11 candidates. Trump endorsed him. Donalds supported Trump over DeSantis in 2024. Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance campaigned for him in Florida. Six other independent or third-party candidates also appear on the ballot.
Republican Senator Ashley Moody defends her seat. She faces Democrat Angie Nixon and an independent candidate. Moody was appointed Attorney General in January 2025. She is running to complete Rubio's remaining term. Nixon won the August primary with 56% of the vote. Her opponent, Alex Vindman, received 44%. Vindman served on the National Security Council.
Senate Contests
If elected, Donalds becomes Florida's first Black governor. He would be the first Black Republican governor nationally. Nixon would become the state's first Black U. S. Senator.
New congressional maps eliminate four districts recently held by Democrats. Three Democratic incumbents face tough challenges. Kathy Castor defends District 14 near Tampa. Darren Soto defends District 9 near Orlando. Jared Moskowitz defends District 25 in South Florida.
Redistricting Impact
Redrawn District 22 in South Florida is also competitive. It includes most of former District 20. It also contains parts of Districts 26 and 18. These areas have strong Republican presence.
Democrats typically perform best around Orlando, Tallahassee, and the Gold Coast. Republicans dominate North Florida and the Panhandle. They also do well in Central Florida and along the Gulf Coast.
Key Battleground Areas
Hillsborough and Pinellas counties are key battlegrounds. Trump won both narrowly in 2024. Biden won both narrowly in 2020. Trump and Clinton split these counties in 2016.
Duval County, home to Jacksonville, is another swing area. Its outcome could influence statewide results significantly.
