Lula's social stake: Brazilian president's fight for his last term

An attentive observer of this dynamic is

The debate on the political future of Brazil has entered a critical phase, marked by the uncertainties surrounding the candidacy for the fourth term of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. On October 4th, just weeks shy of his 81st birthday, the left-wing leader will take the chance to extend his legendary career that spans five decades. This will be his seventh attempt to access the Planalto Palace, after his first participation in the 1989 elections. Lula's electoral history is complex: he ran three unsuccessful campaigns before writing history in 2002, becoming Brazil's first elected working-class president, and then winning a second term in 2006. His recent high point was a spectacular comeback in 2022, when he defeated then-extreme right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro to convince his rival to abandon a coup attempt launched a week after taking office for a third term.

Now, four years away, his main opponent is Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and Jair's son, in a duel that, according to polls, takes place at very short distances.

Despite the proximity of the result, Lula recently expressed, in a podcast interview, an almost absolute confidence in her victory, stating that she cannot visualize how she could lose this election. However, the external analyst considers that the race is too narrow to predict with certainty the winner. Electoral tensions were also amplified by a statement made by Jair Bolsonaro at a rally in the northeast of the country, a region linked to the rural and poor origins of Lula, who was born there in 1945. In front of the crowd, Bolsonaro claimed that viewers were watching the next president of Brazil, implying that his son would take over.

An attentive observer of this dynamic is Frei Betto, the Dominican theologian and writer, whose friendship with Lula has lasted over four decades. Betto, whose full name is Carlos Alberto Libânio Christo, remains firmly convinced that his fellow political fighter will win a final term, even if the vote gap is minimal. For Betto, politics is not just an occupation, but a profound vocation; he describes Lula as a true political animal, breathing this activity almost non-stop. But underneath his apparent optimism is a deep fear: if his predictions prove wrong, the consequences for Brazil's 214 million citizens could be catastrophic.

The most dramatic episode of this U. S

For Betto, the main stake lies in avoiding the return to power of a neo-fascist administration. He is referring to Jair Bolsonaro's government, which he accuses of hand washing during the pandemic, treating the deaths of 700,000 Brazilians due to the coronavirus as a minor incident. The former president's anti-anticipatory response and sabotage of vaccination efforts were often seen as decisive factors in increasing the number of deaths. The theologian's greatest fear is that a second term of Bolsonaro would strengthen his understanding with Donald Trump, allowing him to fistfight over Latin America. Trump is trying to reaffirm Washington's dominance through what is known as the Donroe Doctrine, a modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine.

The most dramatic episode of this U. S. power-reasserting campaign occurred in January when U. S. special forces invaded Venezuela, kidnapping President Nicolás Maduro and, in effect, capturing the government he had left behind. Cuba, a country that Betto has visited frequently since he became friends with Fidel Castro after their 1980 meeting, is also the focus of Trump's attention. The United States is trying to destabilize the Cuban communist regime by stifling the economy and cutting fuel supplies. At 82 years old, Betto claims that Bolsonaro's new victory would lead to a total alignment with U. S. foreign policy. He warns that Brazil would become an American protectorate, similar to Venezuela's current situation. This scenario would bring a devastating wave of privatizations and a significant worsening of social problems, as right-wing governments tend to focus on elites and financial markets, neglecting the needs of the common people.

This week, Lula's campaign publicly accused Trump of trying to colonize Brazil, trying to influence the election result in Bolsonaro's favor to seize the country's natural resources. The theologian also fears that a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro would hit hard on the democracy he and Lula tried to save when they met in the industrial areas of São Paulo in the early 1980s. Although Bolsonaro's coup of 2023 failed, Betto's argument