The Guardian view on Russian parliamentary elections: signs of weakness behind the facade

If results exceed the perceived majority of actual public opinion

Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian power is not constrained by elections, but he is aware of the danger that his rule would appear illegitimate without them. This creates a tension, which is resolved through a „managed democracy” – a euphemism for fraud and repression hidden behind ritual voting, carried out within a constitution that, while theoretically guaranteeing political freedoms, in practice serves only the president. Russians are told they will elect a new Duma, the lower house of parliament, this week, but they already know that United Russia, the official party of Putinism, will win a majority. Securing this result is not without risk for the regime in power. The mechanisms of election fraud are fairly simple: ballots can be stuffed, state media is obedient. However, an overly blatant landslide can produce counterproductive effects.

If results exceed the perceived majority of actual public opinion, an authoritarian leader risks publicly revealing fear of a genuine democratic consultation – a sign of weakness. Something similar happened last month when the Supreme Court blocked the appearance on voting lists of the liberal party Yabloko, an old and marginal formation. The decision was so absurd it seemed devoid of any legal basis. Yabloko is not one of the „systemic” pseudo-opposition parties that simulate pluralism in parliament, nor does it represent a serious threat to the regime. If it were such a threat, it would not have survived this long. Its last appearance in the Duma was in 2007, although it continues to send deputies to local and municipal councils. The party also opposes the war in Ukraine. This Duma vote is the first parliamentary election since the full-scale invasion of 2022.

Yabloko’s one‑proposal manifesto calls for a cessation of hostilities, diplomacy and peace

Yabloko’s one‑proposal manifesto calls for a cessation of hostilities, diplomacy and peace. Refusing to allow the bearers of this idea to participate even in a manipulated election suggests nervousness about the popularity of the „special military operation,” which was supposed to last a few weeks but has now entered its fifth year without an end in sight. The use of Ukraine’s long‑range rockets and drones to strike infrastructure deep inside Russian territory has made it difficult for Moscow to minimise the scale of the conflict on the border or protect the civilian population from its effects. The reality of fuel shortages and inflation seeps through the propaganda wall. So do the losses in life. The true number of Russian casualties is hard to determine, but is estimated at around 1.5 million, with hundreds of thousands dead.

The lack of volunteers has led military recruiters to increasingly turn to coercion, forced recruitment or deceiving people into enlisting. Rumours circulate, denied by authorities, of a mass mobilisation of reserves – „armoured men” needed – that could take place immediately after the elections are over. It is therefore no surprise that the Kremlin has abandoned its last thread of tolerance towards dissent. The apparatus designed to ensure an electoral result in line with the president’s wishes is well understood. There is no reason…